Supply Chain Risk Atlas 2026

Global semiconductor supply chain interactive map: from 25 critical nodes (TSMC, ASML, China Rare Earth, Synopsys) to geopolitical risk assessments by layer. Simulate crisis scenarios: Taiwan, China export ban, US sanctions.

FreeClient-side processingNodes · Snapshot 202625

Static dataset based on: Chris Miller's "Chip War", SEMI Industry Data, SIA Factbook 2024 and Dwarkesh Podcast "The Chip Race", Bloomberg Supply Chain Analysis. Market share and risk score are aggregated estimates. Not financial advice.

25Monitored nodes
4Critical nodes
7Critical Severity
29%Average concentration
9/100Impact scenario

Geopolitical scenario

Impact for the - Baseline 2026

Design & EDA
5/100
Silicon Wafer
8/100
Fabrication (Fab)
12/100
Packaging (OSAT)
10/100
Testing & ATE
6/100
Shipping & Logistics
4/100
Rare Earth Materials
15/100

Filters

Supply Chain Layer
Country
Risk Level

Global Supply Chain Map

25 nodes

Supply Chain Nodes

Fabrication (Fab)
TSMC
Taiwan
Impact:12/100
Fabrication (Fab)
SMIC
China
Impact:12/100
Packaging (OSAT)
ASE Technology (ASE)
Taiwan
Impact:10/100
Rare Earth Materials
China Rare Earth Group
China
Impact:15/100
Fabrication (Fab)
Samsung Foundry
South Korea
Impact:12/100
Fabrication (Fab)
ASML
Netherlands
Impact:12/100
Packaging (OSAT)
JCET Group
China
Impact:10/100
Design & EDA
Synopsys
USA
Impact:5/100
Design & EDA
Cadence Design Systems
USA
Impact:5/100
Design & EDA
Arm Holdings
EU (Others)
Impact:5/100
Silicon Wafer
SK Siltron
South Korea
Impact:8/100
Packaging (OSAT)
Amkor Technology
South Korea
Impact:10/100
Rare Earth Materials
MP Materials (Mountain Pass)
USA
Impact:15/100
Design & EDA
Siemens EDA (ex Mentor Graphics)
USA
Impact:5/100
Silicon Wafer
Shin-Etsu Chemical
Japan
Impact:8/100
Silicon Wafer
SUMCO Corporation
Japan
Impact:8/100
Silicon Wafer
Siltronic AG
Germany
Impact:8/100
Fabrication (Fab)
Intel Foundry (IFS)
USA
Impact:12/100
Fabrication (Fab)
GlobalFoundries
USA
Impact:12/100
Fabrication (Fab)
Tokyo Electron (TEL)
Japan
Impact:12/100
Fabrication (Fab)
Carl Zeiss SMT
Germany
Impact:12/100
Packaging (OSAT)
STATS ChipPAC
Singapore
Impact:10/100
Packaging (OSAT)
Unisem / Infineon Malaysia
Malaysia
Impact:10/100
Testing & ATE
Integrated Microelectronics (IMI)
Philippines
Impact:6/100
Testing & ATE
Teradyne
USA
Impact:6/100

Chips Wars: key concepts

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Taiwanese concentration

TSMC produce il 53% dei chip mondiali e il 90%+ dei chip avanzati (≤7nm). Chris Miller "Chip War" (2022): "Se Taiwan venisse tagliata fuori, la global supply chain si fermerebbe nel giro di 6-12 mesi". Nessun concorrente replicabile in meno di 10 anni e $500B+ di investimenti.

EUV bottleneck ASML

ASML (Veldhoven, NL) holds a 100% market share in EUV lithography - essential for nodes ≤7nm. Each machine costs $350M+, requires three years of consecutive waiting and forty containers for shipping. The optical lenses (Carl Zeiss SMT, Germany) are just as unique. Netherlands banned export to China from 2023.

Rare earths: Chinese monopoly

China controls 90% of rare earth processing (Germanium, Gallium Arsenide), and over 60%+ global extraction. Partial export ban activated in 2023 for gallium/germanium. A total block would shut down chip compound semiconductor & LED production. US alternative at Mountain Pass covers only about 7%.

Key Episodes of the KB Dwarkesh Podcast

"The Chip Race" (2023): Chris Miller + post-"Chip War" analysis. Taiwan Semiconductor ecosystem deep dive: Morris Chang, TSMC history, US CHIPS Act vs EU Chips Act effectiveness comparison. "AI and Compute" (2024): GPU supply bottleneck, NVIDIA H100 allocation, HBM memory by SK Hynix/Micron as AI chokepoint. Available on dwarkesh.com.

Come utilizzare Chip Supply Chain Risk Map

Explore the global map of supply chain nodes

The SVG map shows 25 critical nodes (TSMC, ASML, SUMCO, Synopsys, China Rare Earth, etc.) positioned geographically, colored by geopolitical risk level and sized according to market share.

Filter by layer, country and risk level

Use multi-select filters to layer (EDA, wafer, manufacturing, packaging, testing, shipping, rare earths), country or risk level (low/medium/high/critical) to isolate the nodes you're interested in.

Simulate a geopolitical crisis scenario

Choose a scenario (Taiwan Crisis, China Export Ban, US Sanctions Tightening, Rare Earth Restriction) to see how it affects the aggregated risk score and impact on each layer of the supply chain compared to the baseline.

Click on a node for details

Select a single node (on the map or in the ordered list by risk/Market Share) to view Market Share, Risk Level and Mitigation Options for that scenario.

Suggerimenti

  • Compare the baseline with the "Taiwan Crisis" scenario to understand how global advanced chip production depends on a single geographic territory today.
  • Use the filter for "rare-earth-materials" layer together with the "China Export Ban" scenario to visualize the impact on the upstream component of the supply chain, often overlooked in manufacturing.
  • Sort by "market share" instead of "risk" when you want to identify dominant players regardless of their current risk level.

Domande frequenti

Where do the data on semiconductor chip supply chains come from?

Static dataset 2026 is based on public sources: the book "Chip War" by Chris Miller (2022), SEMI Industry Data, SIA Factbook 2024, the podcast Dwarkesh "The Chip Race", and Bloomberg analysis of supply chain. Market share and risk score are aggregate estimates, not real-time proprietary data.

How are crisis scenarios calculated (Taiwan Crisis, China Export Ban)?

Each scenario applies risk multipliers to geographically and sectorally most exposed nodes (e.g. Taiwan Crisis increases the risk of nodes in Taiwanese manufacturing, China Export Ban those of Chinese rare earths) and recalculates aggregate impact per layer, shown in the "Layer Impact" section.

Why is it so critical to reduce dependence on Dutch EUV?

ASML is the only global producer of EUV lithography machines needed to manufacture chips at 7nm and below. Each machine costs over $350M, requires up to 3 years of waiting list and unique optical components (Carl Zeiss SMT, Germany). Since 2023, the Netherlands has banned the export of these machines to China, making ASML a strategic global bottleneck.

Does this investment tool provide advice on semiconductor stocks?

No. It's an educational/informative tool to understand geographic concentration and geopolitical risks of the semiconductor supply chain. Market share and risk scores are aggregated estimates for public disclosure purposes and do not constitute any form of financial advice or investment guidance.

Are data updated in real-time or is it a fixed snapshot?

The dataset is a static 2026 snapshot elaborated client-side, without external API calls: it does not reflect real-time market fluctuations but offers a structural view of the supply chain, useful for understanding long-term dynamics rather than daily oscillations.